Photo: BMW
The Electric Vehicle card has been touted by all car makers recently as the one solution that will help us save the penguins and the planet at the same time, without losing the ability to drive around whenever we like. While we’d be the first to jump on any wagon that proves to be a real solution to such problems, the impact such cars made in recent years has been underwhelming.
According to the EPA, only this year a noticeable change was observed. The info comes part of the Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Fuel Economy Trends study. The aim of it was to research how the cars evolved over the years, the period observed stretching back to 1975.
It’s a tedious read that’s 148 pages long but the bottom line is that for the first time in history, EVs are starting to actually matter. For example, the number of such cars (including PHEV and CNG-Powered alternatives) is now accounting for 1 percent of the total manufactured in the US (as the study was limited to the US). In the past, the alternative fuel vehicle ratio was basically around 0.1 percent.
As expected, this change further helps out when analyzing other developments in other areas, like the CO2 emissions and the fuel efficiency of cars on the long run.
In 2013, for example, there were 11 EVs up for sale and only 4 PHEVs on the US market. This year, those numbers grew to 12 EVs and 10 PHEVs, an impressive hike in less than 12 months (as 2014 is not over yet and the two versions of the Model S, the P60 and P80 are taken as one).
“The combined production of alternative fueled vehicles has increased from under 1,200 in MY 2010, to nearly 105,000 in MY 2013. While alternative fueled vehicles still represent a very limited portion of overall new vehicle production (0.7% of overall light-duty vehicle production in MY 2013), this increase by a factor of about 100 in three years is both notable and significant,” says the study.
That means that in just 36 months, the production went up nearly 100 times. The charts are also looking impressive and, if the current trend keeps up, we’re in for big changes all around.
Sure, prices might drop in the future as technology becomes more and more accessible but it’s still going to take a lot of convincing to get some people to drive ‘green’. And then there’s the infrastructure problem.
Taken on a global scale, creating the infrastructure needed for EVs is a bigger problem than in the US alone. Countries around the world can’t afford to invest heavily in such things and if only the US sees these changing trends towards electric cars, we’re not going to be making the huge difference that we hope to.
The pace was then slowed down between 1982 and 1985 only to be followed by a reversed trend between 1988 and 2004 with CO2 emissions increasing by 14% and fuel economy decreasing by 12%, even as technology innovation continued to evolve.
Starting with 2005, the trend started to go the right way again, with annual CO2 emissions and fuel economy improvements in eight of the nine individual years, and with CO2 emissions decreasing by 20% and fuel economy increasing by 25% since 2004.
If the numbers stay up, we should see drastic improvements over the next years. What’s more, plug-in hybrids and new battery tech would also make a change. The problem is, it might be too late.
It’s a tedious read that’s 148 pages long but the bottom line is that for the first time in history, EVs are starting to actually matter. For example, the number of such cars (including PHEV and CNG-Powered alternatives) is now accounting for 1 percent of the total manufactured in the US (as the study was limited to the US). In the past, the alternative fuel vehicle ratio was basically around 0.1 percent.
As expected, this change further helps out when analyzing other developments in other areas, like the CO2 emissions and the fuel efficiency of cars on the long run.
In 2013, for example, there were 11 EVs up for sale and only 4 PHEVs on the US market. This year, those numbers grew to 12 EVs and 10 PHEVs, an impressive hike in less than 12 months (as 2014 is not over yet and the two versions of the Model S, the P60 and P80 are taken as one).
“The combined production of alternative fueled vehicles has increased from under 1,200 in MY 2010, to nearly 105,000 in MY 2013. While alternative fueled vehicles still represent a very limited portion of overall new vehicle production (0.7% of overall light-duty vehicle production in MY 2013), this increase by a factor of about 100 in three years is both notable and significant,” says the study.
That means that in just 36 months, the production went up nearly 100 times. The charts are also looking impressive and, if the current trend keeps up, we’re in for big changes all around.
The problem is, we might hit a saturation mark
Growing trends like this seem all beautiful and heartwarming but the truth of the matter is the market will be saturated at one point or another. The ones that really want an electric car probably already bought one or are waiting for one while others that just don’t want to hear about them will never will. That means we’ll get to see the market saturated, the only question is how long before that happens.Sure, prices might drop in the future as technology becomes more and more accessible but it’s still going to take a lot of convincing to get some people to drive ‘green’. And then there’s the infrastructure problem.
Taken on a global scale, creating the infrastructure needed for EVs is a bigger problem than in the US alone. Countries around the world can’t afford to invest heavily in such things and if only the US sees these changing trends towards electric cars, we’re not going to be making the huge difference that we hope to.
There’s still hope
The charts however, also show us that conventional cars have dropped CO2 emissions and fuel efficiency actually increased in the last few years. Since 1975 a rapid growth in efficiency was recorded through to 1981 with fleet-wide adjusted CO2 emissions decreasing by 36% and fuel economy increasing by 56% over those six years.The pace was then slowed down between 1982 and 1985 only to be followed by a reversed trend between 1988 and 2004 with CO2 emissions increasing by 14% and fuel economy decreasing by 12%, even as technology innovation continued to evolve.
Starting with 2005, the trend started to go the right way again, with annual CO2 emissions and fuel economy improvements in eight of the nine individual years, and with CO2 emissions decreasing by 20% and fuel economy increasing by 25% since 2004.
If the numbers stay up, we should see drastic improvements over the next years. What’s more, plug-in hybrids and new battery tech would also make a change. The problem is, it might be too late.
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